تاثیر شاخص توسعه انسانی بر نرخ ازدواج در کشورهای منتخب عضو OECD و غیر OECD

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• ابوالفضل شاه آبادی ¹
• فاطمه سادات حسینی ²

¹ استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

² کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

10.30495/jzvj.2024.30407.3839

چکیده

هدف: پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تاثیر شاخص توسعه انسانی بر نرخ ازدواج در کشورهای منتخب عضو OECD و غیر OECD انجام گرفته است.
روش­: روش این پژوهش از نوع پانل دیتا و جامعه آماری شامل 66 کشور طی دوره زمانی 2000-2018 بوده است. با توجه به هدف پژوهش، کشورها به2 گروه کشورهای عضو OECD و غیر OECD تقسیم شده‌اند. تحلیل داده‌ها و برآورد ضرایب با استفاده از روش «گشتاور تعمیم‌یافته سیستمی دو مرحله‌ای» و نرم‌افزار STATA16 انجام گرفته است. سازگاری تخمین‌زن GMM به فرض معتبر بودن متغیرهای ابزاری و عدم همبستگی جملات خطا بستگی دارد که در این تحقیق از آزمون هانسن-جی و آرلانو-باند به منظور بررسی این دو فرض استفاده شده است.
یافته­ ها: نتایج نشان داد شاخص توسعه انسانی تاثیر منفی و معناداری بر نرخ ازدواج در دو گروه کشورهای مورد مطالعه طی دوره زمانی 2018-2000 داشته است. همچنین ضرایب زیرشاخص‌های درآمد و امید به زندگی نیز در هر دو گروه منفی و معنادار بوده است. نتایج تکمیلی نیز حاکی از تاثیر منفی و معنادار زیر شاخص آموزش در گروه کشورهای غیرOECD می‌باشد؛ اما معناداری این زیرشاخص در گروه کشورهای عضو OECD تأیید نشده است.
جمع‌بندی: تصمیم به ازدواج تنها زمانی اتفاق می‌افتد که از نظر اقتصادی، اجتماعی و یا حتی فرهنگی منطقی به نظر برسد. با توجه به نتایج این تحقیق، شاخص توسعه انسانی و زیرشاخص‌های آن تاثیر منفی و معناداری بر نرخ ازدواج در هر دو گروه کشورهای مورد مطالعه داشته است و تفاوت معناداری از این منظر بین دو گروه کشور وجود ندارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• نرخ ازدواج
• توسعه انسانی
• امید به زندگی

---

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Human Development Index on Marriage Rates

نویسندگان [English]

• Abolfazl Shahabadi ¹
• , Fatemeh Sadat Hosseini ²

¹ Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran

² Master of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Marriage, as a primary institution in society, is the first pillar of forming a family. Many critical variables of society such as fertility rate, population growth, resource utilization, consumption, saving, poverty, crime, etc. are affected by marriage. From this perspective, family studies needs considerable attention. Potential changes that occur during the development process in the societies can influence Individuals decision to marry, but the process of this effect is not clear. The Human Development Index, as a multidimensional index, can be a reliable index to understand the effect of the development process on the marriage rate. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effect of the human development index on marriage rate in selected OECD and Non-OECD countries during the period 2000-2018 using the System Generalized Method of Moments (System_GMM). This study reveals that the human development index has a significant negative effect on the marriage rate in both of the study groups. However, the estimated coefficient in Non-OECD countries is lower than selected OECD countries. The coefficients of the life expectancy and income index are significantly negative in both of selected countries. The education index also has a significant negative effect on the marriage rate in Non-OECD countries, but its significance has not been confirmed in OECD countries. The results also show that the unemployment rate of men and the urban population growth in both groups of the countries have significantly negative effect on the marriage rate.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Marriage rate
• Human Development
• Life Expectancy

مراجع

1.            Arellano, M. and O. Bover, Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of econometrics, 1995. 68(1): p. 29-51.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/030440769401642D
2.            Blundell, R. and S. Bond, Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of econometrics, 1998. 87(1): p. 115-143.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304407698000098
3.            Baltagi, B.H. and B.H. Baltagi, Econometric analysis of panel data. Sixth ed. Vol. 4. 2021: Springer.https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-53953-5
4.            Sampson, R.J., J.H. Laub, and C. Wimer, Does marriage reduce crime? A counterfactual approach to within‐individual causal effects. Criminology, 2006. 44(3): p. 465-508.https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2006.00055.x
5.            Lerman, R.I., Marriage and the economic well-being of families with children: A review of the literature. 2002.http://webarchive.urban.org/publications/url.cfm?renderforprint=1&ID=410541&buildstatic=1
6.            Maharlouei, N., et al., Subjective health and happiness in the United States: gender differences in the effects of socioeconomic status indicators. Journal of mental health & clinical psychology, 2020. 4(2): p. 8.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7304555/
7.            Dush, C.M.K. and P.R. Amato, Consequences of relationship status and quality for subjective well-being. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, 2005. 22(5): p. 607-627.https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0265407505056438
8.            Stack, S. and J.R. Eshleman, Marital status and happiness: A 17-nation study. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 1998: p. 527-536.https://www.jstor.org/stable/353867#metadata_info_tab_contents
9.            OECD, Marriage and divorce rates. Family database, 2019.https://www.oecd.org/els/family/SF_3_1_Marriage_and_divorce_rates.pdf
10.          Dyvik, E.H. Countries with the highest marriage rates worldwide as of 2018. 2023; Available from: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1226437/marriage-rate-worldwide-by-country/.

11.          Becker, G.S., A theory of marriage: Part I. Journal of Political economy, 1973. 81(4): p. 813-846.https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/260084

12.          Becker, G.S., A theory of marriage: Part II. Journal of political Economy, 1974. 82(2, Part 2): p. S11-S26.https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/260287

13.          Goode, W.J., World revolution and family patterns. 1963.https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1964-05851-000
14.          علی, م. and ق.ن. الله, عوامل اجتماعی بالا رفتن سن ازدواج جوانان. مطالعات جامعه شناسی, 2013. 6(20): p. 39-53.http://jss.iaut.ac.ir/article_521120.html?lang=fa
15.         Cherlin, A.J., Goode's world revolution and family patterns: A reconsideration at fifty years. Population and Development Review, 2012. 38(4): p. 577-607.https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2012.00528.x

16.          Lesthaeghe, R., The unfolding story of the second demographic transition. Population and development review, 2010. 36(2): p. 211-251.https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x

17.          Zaidi, B. and S.P. Morgan, The second demographic transition theory: A review and appraisal. Annual review of sociology, 2017. 43: p. 473.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5548437/

18.          Lesthaeghe, R., The second demographic transition: A concise overview of its development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2014. 111(51): p. 18112-18115.https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1420441111

19.          Van de Kaa, D.J., Europe's second demographic transition. Population bulletin, 1987. 42(1): p. 1-59.https://www.safetylit.org/citations/index.php?fuseaction=citations.viewdetails&citationIds[]=citjournalarticle_465470_38

20.          اسماعیل, ج.د.آ., ش. محمد, and ع. طاها, تاثیر شاخص‌های کلان اقتصادی بر نرخ خام ازدواج استان‌های کشور در بازه زمانی 1390-1400. جامعه‌شناسی نهادهای اجتماعی, 2023. 10(21): p. 209-233.http://ensani.ir/fa/article/547356/%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%AB%DB%8C%D8%B1-%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%AE%D8%B5-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D9%86%D8%B1%D8%AE-%D8%AE%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A7%D8%B2%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%87-%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-1390-1400

21.          بگی, م., دلایل و تعیین‌کننده‌های تأخیر ازدواج در ایران. جامعه شناسی کاربردی, 2023. 34(1): p. 31-50.https://journals.umz.ac.ir/article_4453.html
22.         Salamaliki, P.K., Births, marriages, and the economic environment in Greece: Empirical evidence over time. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 2017. 38(2): p. 218-237.https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10834-016-9514-3
23.          Hill, M.J., Love in the time of the depression: The effect of economic conditions on marriage in the Great Depression. The Journal of Economic History, 2015. 75(1): p. 163-189.https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-economic-history/article/abs/love-in-the-time-of-the-depression-the-effect-of-economic-conditions-on-marriage-in-the-great-depression/1914DB8F7E71B9FD0C35210B5AB8EC8B

24.          Moro, A., S. Moslehi, and S. Tanaka, Marriage and economic development in the twentieth century. Journal of Demographic Economics, 2017. 83(4): p. 379-420.https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-demographic-economics/article/abs/marriage-and-economic-development-in-the-twentieth-century/AE187F4551FE72AA9F90A97B95B76290
25.          Burgess, S., C. Propper, and A. Aassve, The role of income in marriage and divorce transitions among young Americans. Journal of Population Economics, 2003. 16(3): p. 455-475.https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-003-0124-7

26.          غلامرضا, ک.ح. and ق.ق. محمد, نابرابری دستمزد مردان و تمایل به ازدواج زنان در ایران. پژوهشهای اقتصادی ایران, 2014. 19(59): p. 73-116.http://ensani.ir/fa/article/348232/%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%B2%D8%AF-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88-%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%84-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B2%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC-%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86

27.          Gould, E.D. and M.D. Paserman, Waiting for Mr. Right: rising inequality and declining marriage rates. Journal of Urban Economics, 2003. 53(2): p. 257-281.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119002005181

28.          Abeynayake, P., E.J. Bomhoff, and G. Lee. Female age at first marriage and fertility levels: A comparison of developed and developing countries. in Proceedings of 19th International Business Research Conference. 2012.

29.          Raymo, J.M. and M. Iwasawa, Marriage market mismatches in Japan: An alternative view of the relationship between women's education and marriage. American Sociological Review, 2005. 70(5): p. 801-822.https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/000312240507000504

30.          Thornton, A., W.G. Axinn, and J.D. Teachman, The influence of school enrollment and accumulation on cohabitation and marriage in early adulthood. American Sociological Review, 1995: p. 762-774.Thornton, A., Axinn, W. G., & Teachman, J. D. (1995). The influence of school enrollment and accumulation on cohabitation and marriage in early adulthood. American Sociological Review, 762-774.

31.          Krupp, D.B., Marital, reproductive, and educational behaviors covary with life expectancy. Archives of sexual behavior, 2012. 41(6): p. 1409-1414.https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-012-9949-z

32.          Anderson, K.G., Life expectancy and the timing of life history events in developing countries. Human Nature, 2010. 21(2): p. 103-123.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225724526_Life_Expectancy_and_the_Timing_of_Life_History_Events_in_Developing_Countries

33.          Bellido, H. and M. Marcén, Will you marry me? It depends (on the business cycle). Review of Economics of the Household, 2021. 19(2): p. 551-579.https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11150-020-09493-z

34.          Schneider, D., K. Harknett, and M. Stimpson, What explains the decline in first marriage in the United States? Evidence from the panel study of income dynamics, 1969 to 2013. Journal of Marriage and Family, 2018. 80(4): p. 791-811.https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jomf.12481
35.          Schaller, J., For richer, if not for poorer? Marriage and divorce over the business cycle. Journal of Population Economics, 2013. 26(3): p. 1007-1033.https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-012-0413-0

36.          Blau, F.D., L.M. Kahn, and J. Waldfogel, Understanding young women's marriage decisions: The role of labor and marriage market conditions. ILR Review, 2000. 53(4): p. 624-647.https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/001979390005300404
37.          Ono, H., Women's economic standing, marriage timing, and cross‐national contexts of gender. Journal of Marriage and Family, 2003. 65(2): p. 275-286

38.          Sweeney, M.M., Two decades of family change: The shifting economic foundations of marriage. American Sociological Review, 2002: p. 132-147.https://www.jstor.org/stable/3088937
39.          White, L. and S.J. Rogers, Economic circumstances and family outcomes: A review of the 1990s. Journal of Marriage and Family, 2000. 62(4): p. 1035-1051.https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1741-3737.2000.01035.x
40.          Asna-ashary, M., et al., Socio-economic determinants of child marriage: evidence from the Iranian provinces. 2020.https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3535283

41.          Gholipour, H.F. and M.R. Farzanegan, Marriage crisis and housing costs: Empirical evidence from provinces of Iran. Journal of Policy Modeling, 2015. 37(1): p. 107-123.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0161893815000101
42.          Programme, U.N.D., Statistical Update: Human Development Indices and Indicators. . 2018.https://hdr.undp.org/content/statistical-update-2018
43.          GS, B., A Treatise on the Family. 2009, Harvard university press             
44.          Oppenheimer, V.K., Women's rising employment and the future of the family in industrial societies. Population and development review, 1994: p. 293-342
45.          Oppenheimer, V.K., Women's employment and the gain to marriage: The specialization and trading model. Annual review of sociology, 1997. 23(1): p. 431-453
46.          Erát, D., Educational assortative mating and the decline of hypergamy in 27 European countries. Demographic Research, 2021. 44: p. 157-188  
47.          Shore, S.H., For better, for worse: Intrahousehold risk-sharing over the business cycle. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010. 92(3): p. 536-548        
48.          Stevenson, B. and J. Wolfers, Marriage and divorce: Changes and their driving forces. Journal of Economic perspectives, 2007. 21(2): p. 27-52       
49.         OECD, Family Database.https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=68249
50.          Eurostat, Crude marriage and divorce rate https://data.europa.eu/data/datasets/kyupewwd81khgtddinyq?locale=en
51.          UNDP, Statistical Update 2018. UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), 2018.http://report2017.archive.s3-website-us-east-1.amazonaws.com
52.          The World Bank.https://www.worldbank.org/en/home
53.          Hsiao, C., Analysis of panel data. 2022: Cambridge university press.https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=DHtrEAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PR13&dq=Hsiao,+C.+(2014).+Analysis+of+panel+data+(No.+54).+Cambridge+university+press.&ots=QSiatR-ym3&sig=kBby1v_Jq6gmCJ5gC20RE5tD2eM#v=onepage&q&f=false
54.          Roodman, D., How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. The stata journal, 2009. 9(1): p. 86-136.https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1536867X0900900106

55.          Arellano, M. and S. Bond, Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The review of economic studies, 1991. 58(2): p. 277-297.https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Arellano%2C+M.%2C+%26+Bond%2C+S.+%281991%29.+Some+tests+of+specification+for+panel+data%3A+Monte+Carlo+evidence+and+an+application+to+employment+equations.+The+review+of+economic+studies%2C+58%282%29%2C+277-297.&btnG